Twenty years back in time, while the world had been thumped by the Dot Com Crash, nobody would've envisaged a life sustained on the basis of algorithms. Nonetheless, today the world consist of data flow and other phenomena determined by data processing. According to Yuval Noah Harrari, mankind has entered the age of Dataism. Everything is a part of sophisticated algorithms. The two types of economies viz Communism and Capitalism are now regarded as a part of Central Data Processing and Distributed Data Processing respectively.
Amidst this Pandemic, mankind has witnessed immense growth in digitalisation. Indeed on this very day, life is incomplete without data and algorithms. This Coronavirus happening has accelerated digitalisation and automation. With cities being locked down, the only way for communication is to make use of digital media. Smartphones and Computers are considered as essential commodities alongside food, shelter and cloth. Video conferencing apps like Zoom, Google Meet, Microsoft Teams etc have received a lot of response. Earlier, the use of these apps was mainly concerned with the corporate sector. But now, such softwares have gained massive attraction of other professionals at all levels. Zoom had recorded only 10 million downloads by the end of 2019. This number rose to about 200 million by the end of March 2020. Moreover, this time the G20 Summit was held through video conferencing, where leaders of major economies discussed about the Pandemic. Employees and staff members around the world are performing their jobs from home. This has changed the face of corporate sector. Educational Institutions had started organising online live classes and sessions. Some are even recorded lectures. Many entrepreneurs around the world had been urging people to practice e-Education and use of online platforms. But the Pandemic has spurred the use of such platforms. Moreover, we are heading towards a 'Cashless Future'. Even after this pandemic, many people would prefer cashless transactions, because the spread of this virus through currency notes has been observed. This will surely lead us to fulfilling the dream of 'Cashless India' that was initiated by our government in 2018. Corruption rate in the Indian public sector is likely reduce in the post-pandemic period due to the extensive digital transactions. Many reliable applications like Paytm, BHIM, PhonePe, Google Pay etc that are based on UPI, have emerged in recent times providing a safe e-transaction platform. International entrepreneurs believe that Coronavirus will benefit the economies once the situation at the International level get relaxed. These statistics may throw light on the queries which could or have arises in your mind.
In this global technocracy, almost everyone has access to a personal digital device. Hence, Industries that will survive the pandemic are those which either do not need to digitalise or can digitalise completely. Lockdowns have restricted travels resulting in successful thriving of those industries which are digitalised. It has resulted in cost saving in manufacturing businesses. The pandemic is also testing the adaptability of industries such as hospitality sector which has suffered as it cannot completely digitalise. Sit-in-restaurants are empty but online take away services are booming . The role of the medicines in healthcare is increasing for outpatient services but still this sector cannot fully digitalise.
Experts anticipate that this Pandemic will expedite automation which may cause vast unemployment. However, Mankind has been striving against all constraints to ensure survival. On an abstract level, we can say that some business models may cease to be relevant and/or reinvent themselves for contemporary environment.
Having discussed about the positive aspects of the pandemic, another question arises: what's next? What will the world be like in 3 years from now? Although this question doesn't have a definite answer at this stage, we can consider some assumptions and get ourselves prepared for the after-effects of this pandemic. When scientists find the vaccine for the virus, its lab testing and human tests would require a few months. But after they come up with a vaccine, we have to choose, 'Who gets the vaccine first?'
Scientists estimate that the world would take about an year or maybe more time to return to total normalcy.
Well, it is evident that there will be an economic crisis post this pandemic. Governments all over the world have splashed out millions of dollars during this pandemic. With major sporting events like the Olympics and the Euro cup being cancelled this year, their organizing bodies and the host cities will face huge economic losses. Aviation and tourism industries will face unimaginable stagnation. Many people throughout the world will have to face pay-cuts. Most of the advanced economies in the world like the USA, Canada, Germany and France are expected to face heavy recessions this year. Economists have estimated a 21 year low of average oil prices in 2020 (Source: BBC). In short, the world will face its most difficult time since the Second World War.
In the previous comparable virus outbreaks like SARS and MERS, it was noticed that, in the countries which were most affected by the crisis, there was political willingness for change. Their leaders drew learning from the past and improved their healthcare infrastructure to better tackle the epidemics in future. Why Taiwan and Singapore have contained the impact, while South Korea and Japan have been able to flatten the curve ? The reminiscences of Pandemics and experiences of other critical disasters have taught such countries about tackling difficult situations. However, in India we have learnt too little to deal with such crises. The timely measures taken to limit the spread are now proving to be unmanageable. The question is that whether we would be able to avert the expected economic catastrophes.
Though in India, testing for COVID-19 treatment has been capped at lower price, it still remains beyond the affordability of majority of the population on lower end of income spectrum.
WHAT SHOULD BE THE MEASURES-
1) Like 2008, the government should take cautious steps by focusing on implementing a combination of stimulus bailout package with policy booster to stop growth paralysis and the boost the confidence of investors and a soft policy to encourage MSMEs
2) Sectors like real estate,automobile,banking includes NBFCs,tourism, are facing brunt of current socio-economic situation. Shrinkage in overall demand has raised a red flag for government. Thus Government and RBI cohesively work for reviving the economy.
We see a lot of public demand to make good healthcare services affordable across the globe. It might happen when all stakeholders, within the healthcare industry, from the demand as well as supply side would be open to digital adoption. But since the beginning of this pandemic, the world has seen innovations in the healthcare industries which would surely make these services more affordable to common man. Such innovations would never have been foreseen an year ago, but we have them today. 'Necessity is the mother of Invention' is comprehensive and stands true for ever. For example, a team at MIT made a ventilator that costs just $100. An Indian team of researchers from Pune developed a Corona-testing kit, which costs about a third of the price of imported kits. Moreover, these kits provide us with the results in less than half the time it requires for the imported ones. Hospitals will become more automated, with robots taking food and medicine to infected people, rather than nurses doing this risky job. It is undeniable that there will be many more such inventions in the year 2020. It would not be surprising that improved healthcare sector becomes one of the manifesto of the campaigning parties during elections.
Productivity of individuals increases when they are a part of a social and supportive group. This is called 'Mayo's Theory of Human Relations'. Post the pandemic, people would become more united and supportive to each other, human relations would be stronger than ever and which will ultimately result in growing productivity. Everyone will work together to minimize the losses, for the losses are incurred as a group, and not as an individual. Unsung heroes of yesterday like nurses, sewage cleaners, sweepers, essential service workers etc will get recognized as heroes of crisis and would undoubtedly achieve a respected position in society.
Scientists estimate that the world would take about an year or maybe more time to return to total normalcy.
Well, it is evident that there will be an economic crisis post this pandemic. Governments all over the world have splashed out millions of dollars during this pandemic. With major sporting events like the Olympics and the Euro cup being cancelled this year, their organizing bodies and the host cities will face huge economic losses. Aviation and tourism industries will face unimaginable stagnation. Many people throughout the world will have to face pay-cuts. Most of the advanced economies in the world like the USA, Canada, Germany and France are expected to face heavy recessions this year. Economists have estimated a 21 year low of average oil prices in 2020 (Source: BBC). In short, the world will face its most difficult time since the Second World War.
In the previous comparable virus outbreaks like SARS and MERS, it was noticed that, in the countries which were most affected by the crisis, there was political willingness for change. Their leaders drew learning from the past and improved their healthcare infrastructure to better tackle the epidemics in future. Why Taiwan and Singapore have contained the impact, while South Korea and Japan have been able to flatten the curve ? The reminiscences of Pandemics and experiences of other critical disasters have taught such countries about tackling difficult situations. However, in India we have learnt too little to deal with such crises. The timely measures taken to limit the spread are now proving to be unmanageable. The question is that whether we would be able to avert the expected economic catastrophes.
Though in India, testing for COVID-19 treatment has been capped at lower price, it still remains beyond the affordability of majority of the population on lower end of income spectrum.
WHAT SHOULD BE THE MEASURES-
1) Like 2008, the government should take cautious steps by focusing on implementing a combination of stimulus bailout package with policy booster to stop growth paralysis and the boost the confidence of investors and a soft policy to encourage MSMEs
2) Sectors like real estate,automobile,banking includes NBFCs,tourism, are facing brunt of current socio-economic situation. Shrinkage in overall demand has raised a red flag for government. Thus Government and RBI cohesively work for reviving the economy.
We see a lot of public demand to make good healthcare services affordable across the globe. It might happen when all stakeholders, within the healthcare industry, from the demand as well as supply side would be open to digital adoption. But since the beginning of this pandemic, the world has seen innovations in the healthcare industries which would surely make these services more affordable to common man. Such innovations would never have been foreseen an year ago, but we have them today. 'Necessity is the mother of Invention' is comprehensive and stands true for ever. For example, a team at MIT made a ventilator that costs just $100. An Indian team of researchers from Pune developed a Corona-testing kit, which costs about a third of the price of imported kits. Moreover, these kits provide us with the results in less than half the time it requires for the imported ones. Hospitals will become more automated, with robots taking food and medicine to infected people, rather than nurses doing this risky job. It is undeniable that there will be many more such inventions in the year 2020. It would not be surprising that improved healthcare sector becomes one of the manifesto of the campaigning parties during elections.
Productivity of individuals increases when they are a part of a social and supportive group. This is called 'Mayo's Theory of Human Relations'. Post the pandemic, people would become more united and supportive to each other, human relations would be stronger than ever and which will ultimately result in growing productivity. Everyone will work together to minimize the losses, for the losses are incurred as a group, and not as an individual. Unsung heroes of yesterday like nurses, sewage cleaners, sweepers, essential service workers etc will get recognized as heroes of crisis and would undoubtedly achieve a respected position in society.
Writers - Ashutosh Gandhe, Sankalp Gharote, Tushar Saboo and Yajnesh Gokhale
Publisher - Yajnesh Gokhale
An excellent research has been done. We really need something like this during such dark times. Keep it up!
ReplyDeleteThat is the most sophisticated and practical research.. Pandemic has made us e-smart.. Save earth, go green..cashless transactions is a boon.. Webinar, video conferencing are saving IT hubs extravagant expenditures and online teaching is becoming interesting.. Thanks for this write up.. You are doing great
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